YkellHi, I'm Ykell
Beating one of the most liquid markets out there consistently. Check out my work at https://ykell.blogabet.com/
Wish I could write something super-interesting about myself, but truth be told, I'm a pretty boring person and so is my lifestyle. I love betting and that is why I devote most of my time to it. Whether it's watching games and making notes, looking for information, doing analysis or educating myself about the industry and improving myself as a bettor... I simply love every part of it.
Started betting about 15 years ago. It was a humble beginning, involving betting parlays at local shops and mostly losing money. I knew that my knowledge about sports was good, so I started to improve my betting skills through reading some quality content, talking to more successful guys and learning from my mistakes. At a certain point I was good enough to earn a solid income through betting and I never turned back.
Although I'm very aware of the importance of the mathematical side of this job, I can't say it's dictating the way I work. Sure, I'm always calculating probabilities and trying to find out how much value there is in the odds. But I'm not a mathematical genius that went to MIT and built a model that is throwing out winners, left and right (that would be cool though).
I watch a lot of games. I try to accumulate all the information I can get in the league that I cover. Looking for an edge in areas which are tough for mathematical models to evaluate and put a correct price on. So basically, my way of doing things is pretty old school, but I put a lot of effort into it and make it successful in a world ruled by numbers.
At Pinnacle I get everything I want and need. A true No.1 bookie out there that every bettor needs. Mostly their odds are the highest on the market, they don't limit winners and they are always looking to improve and offer their customers more. Lately, they added more obscure leagues and side markets.
I have accounts at other bookmakers, but it's mostly for emergency cases.
Every pro bettor knows the importance of getting the best number out there. That is why BET-IBC's VIP service is a must-have option. It allows you to have a variety of books in one account and access to the best odds available out of one account.
During the NFL season, I'm completely focused on the 32 teams playing in that league. I try to watch all the games and gather valuable information.
I evaluate teams, players and their performances. Knowing their strengths and weaknesses helps me analyze the future matchups and make accurate true lines.
I pride myself in knowing the vast majority of the players in the NFL. What they're good at and what they’re not. How valuable they are for their team and what type of opponent can expose their weaknesses. Coaches, their tendencies, offensive systems and defensive schemes. Knowing all that helps me create a strong opinion on how the game is going to play out. Most importantly, recognize a bad number by the bookmakers or an overreaction by the market.
On my blog you can find my current stats which show 8% yield over 200 picks, using Pinnacle odds exclusively. 2 seasons with 7 out of 8 months profitable.
NFL point spreads and totals are one of the most liquid markets out there. So all of my picks are available with high limits.
My stakes are calculated using the Kelly criterion. For those not familiar with it, it helps bettors determine the proper amount to put at risk, considering how much value they found in the odds. I use my analysis and many tools to determine the value the odds are offering and then the Kelly calculator decides the stake. The greater the value, the higher the stake.
It ranges from 1 to 10 units. I find totals to be slightly sharper to begin with. Meaning, I rarely find enough value to justify a bet exceeding 5 units. But when it comes to spread and ML, it can get into 7-10 unit range easily, where I'm also most successful.
I agreed to post 2 picks with previews per week. More likely than not, you will be able to see them on Sundays after most of the NFL week is played. But it's also possible that I'll post my thoughts after a Thursday or a Monday night football.