Dortmund will face Bayern at home on Tuesday, which can be regarded as a “country derby” as well as an early decider of the title race.
As I mentioned last week, Dortmund is adopting a conservative approach since February. Again, they limited Wolfsburg to around 0.5 xG in the previous game, which is a great defensive performance consider they also conceded 0.3xG only to Schalke the week before. In contrast, again they only had around 1.1 xG themselves, as they don’t really push for chances that hard, while important Reus and Witsel are still injured. Sancho is having some fitness issues and started from the bench for 2 consecutive games. In my opinion, it could be a kind of conservative usage of him, in order to allow him the best possible sharpness against Bayern.
Bayern continued their goal fest after “just” a 2-0 victory facing the defensive Union Berlin the week before. However, the 5-2 scoreline is probably flattering the Bavarian’s attack (xG 2.7-1.0), as we can see in the previous week Frankfurt was already very poor defensively even only versus Monchengladbach at home. I DO think Dortmund, who is having probably the best defense over the last few years, would be capable to limit the number of big chances of Bayern via the solid back 3 and midfield duo. It would be hard for Bayern to score more than 2 goals away in Signal Iduna Park, where Dortmund mostly performed much better than on the road, especially in big games.
However, there is a major concern with Hummels’ tendon injury. It is optimistic that he can play, but not sure if he is able to start.
For Bayern, midfield keyman Thiago is doubtful, which can also be a big blow to Bayern’s attack. Overall, it is value to back Under 3.5 goals @1.96 via VIP-IBC. What are you waiting for then? Register for the best betting software now and enjoy the best odds and limits in the market, especially Pinnacle!