Relegation battling Mainz will face top-4 locked Dortmund on Wednesday night. This looked like a matchup for top vs bottom, but it could be closer than what we see apparently due to below reasons.
As previously mentioned, Dortmund has been a defensive team since February since Emre Can replaced Julian Brandt in central midfield. 4 out of their recent 5 games ended in 2 total goals or less, which are also true in expected goals terms. Now, they don’t even need victories, as they have almost no chance to overtake Bayern, while confirmed a top-4 spot. Finishing second or third should not matter much to them. Therefore, even their main man Haaland returned from injury, I still don’t see they are going very offensive.
In contrast, Mainz is still in relegation battle after beaten by Augsburg at home last week despite playing well. However, they are still 3 points ahead of the relegation zone, plus with leading goal difference. Therefore, an marginal loss is totally acceptable to Mainz as they are likely to avoid relegation if they can avoid a heavy defeat in Signal Park. Combining with the defensive tendency of Mainz for recent games, I believe this will be quite a conservative game.
For team news, Marco Reus should be at best on the bench, While Haaland will return to starting. There is no significant news for Mainz. In my opinion, backing Mainz is a choice, but even more valuable to back under 3.5 goals @1.88 at VIP-IBC, given both teams don’t have much intention to score. What are you waiting for then? Register for the best betting software now and enjoy the best odds and limits in the market, especially Pinnacle!