Both teams have undergone a rough restart after the COVID break. Monchengladbach took advantage of earlier return to training and beat Frankfurt in the first half of the restart game, but then they were very much outplayed by Leverkusen and then a slight underdog performance against Bremen. Union played okay versus Bayern and Mainz (given with 10 men most game), but encountered a shockingly huge derby defeat against Hertha. So, which team is slipping down the hill more quickly?
Monchengladbach surprisingly has negative penalty area entry stats (For minus against) despite their high position in the league table and around +20 xGD (expected goal difference). What does this imply? They have allowed opponents to enter their box WAY more than other top teams like Dortmund, Leipzig, Leverkusen, and even Wolfsburg. Very likely they are a bit lucky to have allowed that few xG conceded given how much time opponents spent in their box. Offensively, in both Leverkusen and Bremen games, clearly, they struggled to produce in dangerous areas like they did before the COVID break.
For Union, obviously their counter-attack is less effective after COVID, but at least they maintained a similar level of defense (the Berlin Derby was one exception case). So in my opinion, Gladbach is declining more.
For team news, Union Berlin has regular defender Andrich suspended, while the Gladbach midfield keyman Zakaria is still out for the long term. In my opinion, it is valuable to back Union Berlin +1 AH @2.03 at VIP-IBC. What are you waiting for then? Register for the best betting software now and enjoy the best odds and limits in the market!