Wolfsburg will host Borussia Dortmund at Volkswagen Arena on Saturday. The Wolves are fighting for a top sixth spot in the Bundesliga, while Dortmund needs the 3 points for the title challenge. Dortmund looked like an overwhelming favorite here with their apparently unstoppable attack, but there are hidden problems from them, while Wolfsburg is one of the most underrated sides in the league.
Dortmund’s attack has been limited since the Dortmund-PSG first leg in mid-February. One of the reasons is that they lost the important Marco Reus, who can do almost a bit of everything in the attacking third, especially finishing. Secondly, Favre had gone for Emre Can over Julian Brandt in the central midfield position, for stability over creativity. Since then, Dortmund had been much better defensively, while the ball advancement had been significantly slowed as a compromise. Their xG had been just around 1.25 for the recent 6 games (2 against PSG though). They had relied on the superb finishing, especially from Erling Haaland Jadon Sancho and, a bit surprisingly, Rapahael Guerreiro. However, this could be a little bit of luck, and is unlikely to sustain such a high level for the long term. Besides, their defense (xGA 1.0) did improve but is not as significant as the worsening of attack.
In contrast, Wolfsburg had been very good since February. They had won 4 and drawn 3. I did have concern for them when their captain DM Guilavogui out injured before the game vs Mainz. But since then, they have switched to a more attacking and pressing approach, and worked very well. The best game was probably playing Leipzig at home, where they managed a 0-0 draw, and just a small “defeat” in terms of xG (0.8-1.1). In the previous matchday away at Augsburg, they even managed to limit Augsburg to ZERO access to the middle area just outside the penalty box (zone 14)! For major injuries and suspensions, Dortmund has important Zagadou and Reus out for the long term, while midfield duo Emre Can and Witsel are still doubtful. On the other hand, Wolfsburg still has right back Willliam and central midfielder Gerhardt absence, while Guilavogui had returned to training and could be available on the bench. Overall, small positive to Wolfsburg again. It is value to back Wolfsburg +0.5 @2.152 on VIP-IBC. If you also want to enjoy the highest odds in the market, sign-up for the best betting software – VIP-IBC, right now!