Vous avez peut-être entendu ou lu le terme dans des émissions ou des articles de CT. Pourtant, sa définition n’est jamais placée dans le bon contexte. BET-IBC l’expose pour vous afin de dissiper toute idée fausse et de tirer parti de ce qu’il fait vraiment. Vous pouvez, bien sûr, utiliser ce que vous apprenez à travers le nouveau compte que vous ouvert sur la meilleure plateforme de paris.
Le concept
Tout d’abord, il faut préciser qu’il s’agit d’une approche qui permet aux parieurs de réaliser des bénéfices à long terme. Au lieu d’exprimer cela en termes compliqués, décomposons-le en concepts les plus élémentaires.
Supposons que pour un certain match, la cote fournie par un bookmaker est de 1,8 pour un pari sur plus de 2,5 buts. La façon dont ils calculent ces cotes leur indique que la possibilité que le résultat soit effectivement de 3 buts ou plus est de 55 %. Cependant, des modèles mathématiques plus précis peuvent montrer que la probabilité réelle de ce même résultat est de 70 % au lieu de 55 %. Lorsque cela se produit, c’est-à-dire que la chance réelle est supérieure à la probabilité présentée par les algorithmes de calcul utilisés par les bookmakers, alors vous avez la valeur du pari.
Si vous recherchez la valeur du pari dans tous ou la plupart de vos paris, il est certain qu’avec le temps, vous recevrez toujours un bénéfice.Un mot de sagesse : le valeur du pari ne signifie pas que vous ferez un bénéfice sur chacun et tout pari que vous placez.
Tools to use
To calculate the value, the formulas used to calculate ROI (Return on investment) will do fine. It is also possible to estimate the mathematical advantage of a bet. The result will provide mathematical data and a technical explanation. In plain terms, the potential return on the investment. This is a piece of crucial information which will help you make the best decisions on where to place your bets. Here is a basic formula to use:
Value = (Real Probability x Odds provided) – 1
if the value is greater than 0, then we have found a value bet.
To save time, you can use already prepared mathematical tools like an online value betting calculator to see if it really works. However, it is important to learn and understand the process.
Value Types
There are two types of value.
Value type 1 is a mathematical advantage and it adheres to the formula:
potential earning = return on investment (ROI)
It allows you to see if a price given by the bookmaker is high or low. It also helps you see how much we can increase or decrease your betting investment by constantly placing the same bet.
Value type 2 is called a relative deviation. It compares the odd determined by the bookmaker to the mathematical result. The benefit is the assessment and statistical calculation of future bets. The result will help in concepts like an analysis of a relationship between two games.
How to Find Value Bets?
The way to find a good bet is to use the concept of Expected Value. The important issue to realize here is that it is not a fixed parameter. It is a variable that may differ, especially in short-term bets. If you have inside information or tips on an event, you may find that the odds you calculate differ from the odds offered by a bookmaker.
Let’s work out the Expected Value for a match between Team A and Team B on a bet for Team A to win OF €10.
In all matches, there are three outcomes, victory for Team A win, victory for Team B, and a draw. The given odds:
- Team A to win: 2.00 or 50%
- Team B to win: 4.00 or 25%
- Draw: 3.60 or 27.78%
Now, let’s apply the following formula:
EV (Expected Value) = (€10*0.5) – (€10*0.53) = € 5.00 – €5.30 = – €0.30
This shows the negative value we can expect when placing a bet with a bookmaker. It is what they built into their odds, to ensure their profit. You can learn more on the subject through our discussion of how do Bookmakers Calculate their Odds.
Now, if you find a 2.10 offer on heads from a bookmaker, this is a value bet. The greater the positive difference between the expected value and the offer is, the more profitable is the bet.
There are no guarantees
Many punters assume that if the only place value bets, their profit is certain. This assumption does not take into account 2 variables:
- We are talking about sports. The chance of an unexpected outcome is inherent and cannot be calculated. It is also what makes sports so beloved.
- Higher offers maybe the bait to drag you into the vault, make you lose your discipline out of some good short term profits and then lose everything.
Value betting is an issue of strategy. You can select any of the top Asian and European bookmakers that we cooperate with, to implement this strategy on. If the odds are correct, then, over time, the total outcome of your activity will be positive. Even negative expected values may provide you with some short term revenues. However, the most important issue is not to lose your mind and stay the course to the end.
