Both teams have undergone an average restart after the COVID break. Koln had 2 draws and 1 loses, conceded 7 goals in 3 games with every game “winning” the expected goal (xG) battle. Their defense has been fragile all season and they are over-aggressive in underdog situations. For example, after the winter break, rather than other underdogs playing mainly on the counter-attack, they went toe-to-toe against Dortmund and Bayern, ended up losing by 1-5 and 1-4 respectively despite putting on some good xG numbers. It is likely that they have conceded a lot of “semi 1v1” chances which most of the xG models have underrated the number. In my opinion, their defense is literally one of the worst in the league.
In contrast, the attacking Leipzig will likely create a big clash of style in this matchup. They scored the 3rd most and is the 2nd in xG for this whole season with the superb Timo Werner, Marcel Sabitzer, Christopher Nkunku, and the organized while aggressive wingback formation. However, they have been limited to 1 win and 2 draws after the COVID break, in which the Freiburg draw was unlucky, while they were very well nullified by one of the most red-hot teams Hertha Berlin, especially after downing to 10 men. So, I tend to believe Leipzig is still sustaining their normal attacking level and will blow Koln away since Koln will allow them plenty of space to attack.
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