We all know that there is a major league on each country and then second, third tier leagues, and so on… What we do not usually even know about, is the existence of, let’s call them, «strange» leagues or competitions. In fact, we have chosen such an event for our next tip. Let’s go to England then and the English Football League Trophy.
For the third round of this competition, at 19:30 GMT on January 10, at the Grown Ground Stadium, local heroes Accrington Stanley will host a name that will bring some memories of several years ago and the Premier League. The Bolton Wanderers. It’s a knockout match, therefore, one of its own inherently.
A few words about the EFL Trophy
Typically, it started back in 1982 in an effort to replace the Anglo-Scottish Cup. At that time, it was known as the Associate Members Cup, until it received its current name in 1992. The idea behind it was to create a secondary competition that would work by inviting clubs from the four levels of English football. Now, it involves 16 regional groups, with 4 clubs at each, divided into the Northern and the Southern sections. The top 2 teams qualify for the knockout stage. Interestingly, clubs from the Midlands or East Anglia, can participate in both geographical divisions.
At the end, the last 2 remaining teams fight it out at the final at Wembley Stadium for the title of the Trophy Champions. As a matter of fact, the Bolton Wanderers are the current holders of said title, while the most successful club of this competition are Bristol City.
The two duellists
Accrington Stanley managed to win the round robin stage of Northern Group C with 2 victories and a loss, 7 goals scored and 5 conceded. Actually, they tied with the U21 team of Nottingham Forrest and qualified because they were victorious in the match between them. At the first round of the knockout stage they defeated Lincoln City by 1-0. Thus, they made it for this match.
On the other hand, Bolton dominated Northern Group E with 3 wins 13 goals in favor and only 1 against. Another 2-0 victory over Port Vale got them through the first round. Considering that they are also second in League One with one less match than the leaders Portsmouth, it’s rather fair to say that they are the major favorites to successfully defend the title they hold.
Strange equilibrium
There is a quite significant difference in class between the two sides, therefore, the odds of @1.983 for the Wanderers and @2.843 for the hosts make sense. However, considering that Accrington is in the middle of the table of League 2, those odds do not seem to reflect that difference. Ostensibly, they hosts have been given the home field advantage, however, in our opinion it is not enough to justify the price. The performances of the two sides would probably be good for something in the vicinity of @1.50 for the visitors and over @5.00 for the hosts. The unlikely outcome of a draw gets @3.387.
On the other hand, a lot more interesting are the offers for the result of the first half. @3.387 for Accrington, @ 2.518 for Bolton, @2.174 for a draw. Effectively, any good choice there would provide a substantial return of the investment.
What to expect
Honestly, a 70% ball possession by the Wanderers, Accrington trying to keep their opponents away and attempting to score on a counter. Even at that, we do not expect that the home side will be able to keep the visitors from scoring. And probably twice. Barring a major upset due to a unforeseeable circumstance, Bolton Wanderers will emerge victorious and advance to the next round.
Overall, we have a match that promises at least a decent profit for those who decide to place a wager on it. And that holds true for most of the markets that are available for this one.
Update
Things got really interesting since the last time we talked about this one. While the price for @1.983 in favor of Bolton Wanderers remained, the odds for the victory for the home side jumped from @2.843 to @3.292. And that’s a bit incomprehensible since Accrington defeated Salford on Jan 01 with a massive 3-0! On the other hand, the 0-0 draw that the visitors achieved against the Premiership club Luton, speaks volumes as to the form they are in.
It would appear that the bookmakers consider that there is no chance for the hosts to win. Even the offers for the draw, jumped from @3.387 to @3.483. Typically, 1.983 is a good incentive for a wager with a fairly decent return of the investment. However, since those that do the legwork, seem to think that it will be an easy afternoon for the visitors, we will suggest something that pays a bit better. We will go for @2.661 and the -1 Asian Handicap offer. All things considered, it’s not that much of a risk. The price for a possible win of Accrington may look better, but it has only an 8% chance of coming to pass.
Things are more or less sorted out on this one. So, it’s time to consider more unconventional options that afford better chances and a slightly higher profit possibilities. Now, run along and open a Betspider account. You will need it to place your bets.