It’s Round 16 for the FA Women’s Super League and it’s the last roll of the dice for the two contenders that we will discuss about, to claim success to their objectives for the Season. Therefore, at Preston Park on Mar 17, Liverpool FC Women will take on West Ham United FC Women at 13:00 GMT. For the hosts it’s a last-ditch effort to approach the top 4, while for the visitors it’s a struggle to avoid relegation to the Women’s Championship. There are only 6 more rounds left for both sides to accomplish their goals.
What do the numbers say
7 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses, 25 points and the 5th spot at the table, is the record for the home team. 22 goals scored and 20 conceded. Basically, statistics that completely justify their position in the middle of the standings. On the other hand, just 3 victories, 3 ties and 9 losses with just 12 points and the second to last place, sums up the season for the away side. Just 16 goals scored with a massive 30 conceded. Only Bristol City have a worse record than that.
Typically, this would be a one way or the other win for Liverpool. So say the odds, which at this time show @1.80. The Hammers get a disappointing @3.90.
However, there is another issue to consider here. On the head-to-head comparison, it’s the 4th time the two will meet. The last 2 previous encounters ended up in draws, 1-1 and 0-0 respectively. The home team has a win to show with 2-0 that dates back to 2022! The only win for West Ham (1-0) was recorded in January 25 2023 for the League Cup. Those numbers also say one thing. Not only that the most likely outcome is a draw (offered at @3.60), but that there will be less than 3 goals scored. Which makes a bet on an Asian handicap of under 2.25 at @2.26, a quite logical choice.
Realistically speaking
Liverpool is tied with Manchester United at 25 points and loses the position on the goal difference. The Gunners in 3rd have 34 points, while the two leaders Chelsea and Manchester City have 37. The only realistic target to follow is to overtake the Red Devils and finish 4th. On the other hand, the motive for the Hammers is much stronger. Everton and Brighton have 14 points while Aston Villa and Leicester City are at 16. They have the chance of climbing all the way to the 7th place of the table, behind Tottenham.
Update
When we did the preview for the confrontation between the Reds and the Hammers, we spoke of the interim match that Liverpool had to play against Leicester City. Actually, this was a match that they owed. Therefore, it was their big opportunity to get a 3-point advantage over their rivals Manchester United. However, it was a chance that they lost as they were defeated at home by 2-0.
This result has narrowed down the options for the hosts. It’s now a «do or die» confrontation. At least, if they want to accomplish anything better that the middle of the table. The fact that they have suffered 2 consecutive defeats after a draw, makes things even harder. So, it comes down on how well they will handle the additional stress. For the bookmakers, the odds haven’t changed much. @1.854 over @1.80 still provide them with the advantage.
The record of 22 – 22 in goals scored and conceded, gives us a «both teams to score» vibe. Probably, the same stands true for the bookmakers and that’s why they offer rather low prices on the market. Our initial thought for an under 2.5 goals still holds water and this is what we will suggest. @2.300 for a 2.25 Asian Handicap.
Ostensibly, this is the rather safe suggestion for this encounter. To be honest, we do not think that there’s enough here to take any risks. So, open an account at the best betting platform , take good care of your bankroll and play it safe on this one to make a decent return of your investment.