It’s almost time for the 11th round of the Bulgarian First Division and we have a very interesting confrontation. At the Hristo Botev Stadium in Plovdiv, the local team will play hosts to the league leaders Levski Sofia on Oct 05 at 17:00 GMT. It is match where the home team not only has the most incentive to win. They simply must.
The hosts in Botev Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia could come out on top
On one side we have a team that neither scores nor concedes easily. The record of 9 in favor vs 5 against is the best testament to that. Yet, they are 4th on the table just 6 points away from the top with 5 wins 1 draw and 2 losses. On the other hand, we have the league leaders at a record of 21-4 in goals scored and conceded, 7 victories, 1 tie and 1 defeat.
However, Botev also have one less match than their opponents. Meaning that, if they win them both, at best they will come out above Levski (equal on points but having defeated them on the match in question). At worst, they will reduce the deficit to just 3 points. That being said, it should be taken into account that the visitors have not lost at Plovdiv since August 2021. The last match between the two was a 1-1 draw, while the 2 previous ones were both won by Levski (3-1 and 1-0). In fact, the away team has won 5 out the 6 latest confrontations.
Prices for Botev Plovdiv vs Lefski Sofia
The bookmakers seem to be awarding an advantage to the visitors with the @1.940 offer, while the hosts get @2.744. On a match where a draw is quite possible, the price of @3.550 is not bad at all. Since it is expected that there will be no more than 2 goals scored, the offer of @2.139 for over 1.5 seems logical. However, giving an Asian handicap of -1.25 for the home team at @2.020 is not.
A lot will depend on the outcomes of the away game that Plovdiv have to play at CSKA Sofia and the home match that Levski have to play against Arda. If the difference becomes 7 or 9 points, it will be a quite different story next week, when we will review the facts. The overall situation forces the hosts to play with their backs against the wall. It will be interesting to see how they handle the stress.
Update
Both sides have won the in-between games against CSKa Sofia and Arda, more or less, as expected. Botev Plovdiv by 1-0 and Levski Sofia by 2-1. Which means that the difference between them remains at 6 points. However, what has changed is their position on the table. The visitors are now 2nd on goal differential from Ludogorets, while the hosts are still 4th on the same criterion to Cherno More. A win for them may bring them up to 3rd.
New odds for the match between Boten Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia
And much more interesting. The @1.940 for the visitors is now @2.056 and the @2.744 for the hosts has become @3.584. i.e. the bookmakers have increased the advantage in favor of Levski. The draw gets @3.450. An intriguing @2.222 comes with a bet for over 2.75 goals. The price of @2.603 for over 3 is rather wishful. However, an offer that I think is not well-considered, is the @2.841 that says that Botev is not going to score. For those that like risks, it is a good option to think about.
The question to answer is whether the bet will be on the conservative side or on the risky one. We agree with the assessment that one way or another Levski will win. So, we will go with the conservative option of @2.056 which is not bad at all. Those who want to take the risk can choose the @2.222 for over 2.75 goals. A score of 2-1 is quite possible.
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