UFC 311 will be vibrating to the tune of the main card title bout between champion Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan on Sunday, January 19th at the Intuit Dome, Los Angeles, California, USA at 11 PM GMT. In a build-up to that fight, two former champions – Jiri Prochazka and Jamahal Hill will face off in the 205-pound division. This will be the fight I will be reviewing to find a valuable bet for you guys. But first, let’s take a close look at the profile of both fighters.
Jiří Procházka AKA “BJP”
The current #3 on the Best MMA Light Heavyweight Fighters chart is no newcomer. With a professional record of 30-5-1, BJP is the slight favorite in this matchup due to his experience and all-around better stats. The Czech Republic native is a former UFC 275 champion and knockout beast.
26 of his 30 wins were via KO/TKO. That’s 87%, and it tells us just how explosive he is as a fighter. BJP is not a talker; he is a fighter who lets his hands and feet do the talking. One thing BJP and Hill have in common is that they both come to this bout after suffering defeats from the same fighter—the Brazilian Alex Pereira, #2 on the Best MMA Light Heavyweight Fighters chart.
Jiri is a very calculative and unpredictable fighter who knows when to attack and use his opponent’s weaknesses to his advantage. However, against a better fighter like Alex Fereira, this strategy didn’t pay off as he got knocked out 3:14 minutes into the first round of that fight. A mini revenge for BJP #3 will be to beat the Hill #4 after being knocked out by the #2. Let’s see how Jamahal Hill’s profile compares.
Jamahal Hill AKA “Sweet Dreams”
Much like the BJP, Hill excels in knockouts. 7 of his 12 wins came as a result of knocking out his opponents. With a professional record of 12-2-0, “Sweet Dreams” dreams of reaching the summit of the discipline and fancies his chances of defeating the BJP. In a video published on his YouTube channel, Hill said “Everyone knows that I’ve been waiting for months now to face Jiri”, letting us know just how impatient he is for the fight.
Worth noting is the fact that this fight had to happen several months ago but didn’t because Jiri suffered an injury back then. Hill equally suffered an injury a few months ago but is now fit for this bout.
Hill’s boxing is very sharp and he has shown an ability to finish fights with both hands. However, he needs to work on his defense. Against Alex Fereira, he was surprised by a left hook that sent him crumbling, enabling Fereira to finish off with ground strikes.
The Key to Winning for Both Fighters
For Prochazk to win, he needs to dictate the pace and keep Hill off balance with his striking ability. Considering BJP is a better striker, for Hill to win, he needs to keep him at bay and look to land heavy shots early.
| Sub. Avg | ||
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| SLpM | ||
| SLpM Str. Acc. SApm Str. Def. TD Avg. TD Acc. TD Def. Sub. Avg. |
= Significant Strikes Landed per Minute = Significant Striking Accuracy = Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute = Significant Strike Defence (the % of opponents strikes that did not land) = Average Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes = Takedown Accuracy = Takedown Defense (the % of opponents TD attempts that did not land) = Average Submissions Attempted per 15 minutes |
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Jiri Prochazka vs Jamahal Hill – The Prediction
With over a week to go, bookmakers have begun releasing early odds for this explosive fight. I’m considering both over/under and direct bets here but need to see how the fighters will be fairing in the coming days to give you guys the most accurate prediction possible.
Update
There we go—the stage is set for a night of fireworks in UFC 311. Prochazka is the more experienced and stronger fighter of the two, so it comes as no surprise that all the top Asian and European bookmakers fancy him to win the fight. He holds a significant advantage if we analyze the early odds released by the bookies, with odds hovering around 2.09 against 1.859 for Jamahal Hill.
The defeat to Alex Pereira, #2 on the Best MMA Light Heavyweight Fighters chart came as a bitter pill to swallow for the BJP, and Jamahal Hill is the right candidate for him to exercise his revenge on.
Aside from the better Knockout power, the BJP has many other statistics speaking in his favor. Some of these include better takedown accuracy (60% vs 0% for Hill), a better takedown average (0.72 vs 0 for Hill), a better strike defense (39% vs 0% for Hill), and a better submission average (0.2 vs 0 for Hill).
Although some of these statistics shouldn’t be taken as the sole basis for analysis, given the fact that the BJP has fought more fights than Jamahal Hill, his overall skillset and composure indicates that he comes to this fight with an advantage; hence, I will be backing him to win this one.
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