For those new to our corner of the world GWS stands for Greater Western Sydney. And for this one we will have a fight between the 4th and the 5th team of the AFL table. At the Oval Stadium, the local Crows will host the Giants on Apr 19 at 06:15 GMT. For both sides, the incentive is to get closer to the top, where Hawthorn and Brisbane fight shoulder to shoulder.
Actually, they are both at 3rd
Gold Coast, Collingwood, St Kilda, the Giants and Adelaide are tied at 12 points each. However, this may be broken really soon as the Suns have one match less than the other two. The record shows three victories for each. But, the two parties involved in our little discussion, also have one loss each. Since the postponed match for the Suns is against Essendon, it is quite likely that their record will go to 4 wins and they could pull themselves up to match the two league leaders.
The difference in classification stands in the tiniest of details between the two. Specifically, PCT is at 149.01 for GWS and 146.63 for Adelaide. All of the rest of the stats are more or less the same. For all intents and purposes, we have a match between two equal teams. And this is always interesting.
The home field advantage
Seeing the odds at @1.68 for the hosts and @2.20 for the visitors we understand that the bookmakers want to grant Adelaide the home field advantage. However, this is not supported by the head-to-head data. Only the last encounter between the two ended in a win for the Crows (94-78). The three previous ones had the Giants as the clear victors and, twice, with humiliating scores (71-57, 113-54, 106-39). We have to go back to September 2020 for the next Adelaide victory by 59-47.
Before they play against each other, the Crows host Geelong and the Giants travel to St Kilda. Not easy matches to win for either as we are talking about the 8th and 7th teams of the board respectively. Lest we forget that St Kilda is also at 12 points on par with the rest.
Update
The Giants walked over St Kilda with the impressive 110-82, Now they are tied with Gold Coast, Collingwood and former league leaders Hawthorn at 16 points. The top spot now belongs to Brisbane with 20 points. Adelaide lost at home from Geelong by 119-100 dropping at 5th with the same points as Geelong, Fremantle and St Kilda. These results modified the offers to quite more interesting ones.
Close call close odds
The Crows are now paying at @1.81 instead of @1.68, while the Giants now get @2.15 instead of @2.20. Translation: the bookies think that one way or another Adelaide will win this one. We do not believe so. The latest performances show quite a difference between the two teams. Yes, the home side may have been backed into a corner and have to fight with their backs to the wall. However, we do not believe that they are in a condition to pose a serious threat for GWS. The fact that the odds became more balanced, seems to indicate that it will just be a closely fought combat. But, in our minds, there is no doubt about the winner. So, we will take the risk and propose that everyone that open an account at the best betting platform places a wager on the victory of Greater Western Sydney Giants at @2.15.