The UEFA Women’s Euro 2025 has officially kicked off in Switzerland, and one of the key matchups in Group D will be the clash between the Netherlands and France. The match is scheduled for July 13th at 19:00 GMT at St. Jakob-Park in Basel. Both teams, eliminated in the quarter-finals in 2022, will be aiming to go further this time. Let’s take a closer look at this fixture.
Netherlands: A competitive side with defensive issues to resolve
The Oranje Leeuwinnen come into this tournament with somewhat inconsistent form. In their last five matches — including international friendlies and UEFA Nations League games — they have recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. These results show a degree of attacking stability, although defensive weaknesses remain a concern.
Looking at their last seven matches, the Netherlands have scored a total of 13 goals, averaging 1.86 goals per game. Defensively, they’ve conceded 11 goals during the same period, with an average of 1.57 goals against per match. This suggests a team with solid attacking potential but one that still needs to fine-tune its defensive performance.
For this new edition of the tournament, head coach Andries Jonker has opted for a squad that blends experience with youth. The return of Vivianne Miedema — the national team’s all-time leading scorer — after a long injury absence adds weight to their attack. Also noteworthy are the inclusions of rising talents like 19-year-old Wieke Kaptein (Chelsea) and defender Veerle Buurman, recently signed by Chelsea from PSV. With these additions, the Netherlands hope to strike the right balance to progress further.
France: A well-oiled machine on both ends of the pitch
Les Bleues arrive in excellent form, having won every match played so far. Over their last eight matches — including international friendlies and the UEFA Women’s Nations League — they’ve secured eight consecutive victories.
During this run, they’ve scored 24 goals, averaging 3.0 goals per match, while their defence has been solid, conceding just 6 goals (0.75 per game). These numbers reflect a well-balanced and dominant team, both offensively and defensively, making France one of the favourites to go far in the competition.
Head-to-head and match probabilities
The last meeting between these two teams was in 2022, a tight match that ended 1-0 in favour of France after extra time. Although much has changed since then, that result — along with current statistics — gives us a preview of what to expect this time around.
It’s still early for bookmakers to release final odds, but expert websites suggest the following probabilities:
- Netherlands W Win: 60%
- France W Win: 80%
- Draw: 10
- Over 2.5 Goals: 60%
- BTTS (Both Teams to Score): 45%
- Netherlands W Win 1st Half: 30%
- France W Win 1st Half: 50%
Before this Group D fixture, the Netherlands will face Wales on Saturday, July 5th, while France will play a crucial match against the current champions, England, on the same day. These upcoming matches will be key in shaping our final betting decisions.
Update
We return with our prediction following the midweek matches in Group D of the UEFA Women’s Euro 2025. Netherlands W have played two games: they won 0-3 against Wales but lost 4-0 to the current champions, England. As a result, they now sit 3rd in the group with 3 points, level with England. Their goal difference is -1, having scored 3 and conceded 4.
France W, on the other hand, have won both of their matches: a 2-1 victory over England and a 4-1 win against Wales. That puts them at the top of the group with 6 points and a +4 goal difference (6 goals scored and 2 conceded).
Bookmakers offer odds of 4.79 for a Netherlands W win, 1.68 for a France W victory, and 3.90 for a draw. Given the recent form of both teams, our suggestion for those opening an account at the betting platform is to back the France win — a modest but safer option.