It’s time to take a small break from football betting predictions and explore another exciting discipline. This is a preview of the highly anticipated UFC 318 bout: Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier, scheduled for July 20th at 3 AM at the Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana, USA. This is a retirement fight for Poirier, who will hang up his gloves after the bout, ending an illustrious career. What’s at stake is none other than the UFC “BMF” Title Belt. Poirier leads the series 2-0, with a submission win way back in 2012 and a unanimous decision in their interim lightweight title clash in 2019. Max is looking to break that streak, no doubt about it. Now, let’s review the important statistics and find a valuable bet to place.
Fighter Breakdown: Max “Blessed” Holloway
Max Holloway (26-8-0) is a volume striker who has a record for the most significant strikes landed in the UFC. His April 2024 KO victory over Justin Gaethje at UFC 300 was just unbelievable, a true “BMF” moment. Although he lost recently by knockout against Ilia Topuria in October 2024, he remains one of the most dangerous fighters in his category.
Blessed is known to have crazy cardio and can keep up a never-ending speed for five rounds. His solid defense is healthy at 59%, and he blocks a good number of shots headed his way. He scores 7.16 significant strikes per minute, an outstanding rate. But keep in mind, he absorbs 4.76 significant strikes per minute, meaning he’s just fine with taking a shot to deliver one. Max possesses solid takedown defense, at 83%, making it difficult to take him down. That is significant, as Poirier is a solid all-around threat.
Fighter Breakdown: Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier
Dustin Poirier (30-9-0, 1 NC) is a true lightweight elite. He’s got hands, slick submissions, and an iron chin. He’s fought for the undisputed lightweight crown many times and has always been close to the top. His last fight was a submission loss to Islam Makhachev in June 2024. Before that, he had a brutal KO win over Benoit Saint Denis in March 2024.
Poirier lands 5.30 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 50%. He receives 4.33 significant strikes per minute, 52% striking defense. Poirier also has 16 KO/TKO and 7 submission wins out of his 30 victories, proving that he can finish the fight where it goes. His takedown accuracy is 36%, with a 64% takedown defense. Though not a wrestling specialist, he can now stand and fight and threaten to submit if it is taken to the ground.
Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier Head-to-Head History and Key Statistics
As mentioned previously, Poirier holds a 2-0 lead over Holloway. The initial bout was a first-round submission, Holloway’s UFC debut. The second, a five-round war, showcased Poirier’s ability to win on the cards against a high-volume puncher like Max.
In their fight in 2019, Poirier landed 178 significant strikes and Holloway landed 181. It was a nail-biter statistically, indicating how close these two stand when they’re standing and trading. Power was the key factor for Poirier in that fight, as he narrowly edged his opponent.
The Betting Angle: What to Look for
The lines are presently really close. Bookmakers perceive it as essentially 50/50. It is not surprising given their past and current circumstances.
For Max, the need to finally best Poirier and the momentum of his Gaethje knockout are massive. MMA rising star Paddy Pimblett backs Max and stated in a podcast that a 3-0 would be unacceptable to bear for Max. He further said that he believed Max could pull off an upset.
For Dustin, the emotional rush of fighting in New Orleans, along with his established 2-0 mark against Max, could give him the edge. His threat and power of submission are always there. But will the “retirement fight” dimension affect his performance? Will it take him to new heights, or will the pressure get too much? However, note that Poirier had asked to fight either Justin Gaethje or the undisputed Ilia Topuria for his retirement, but was given Max.
Update
Max Holloway is poised to capture this trilogy bout. For one, his momentum is not in doubt. That last-minute knockout of Justin Gaethje at UFC 300 was not a win; it was an iconic, “BMF” statement, showing us his power and willingness to take control. That followed a dominant performance in which he defeated his foe with his world-class striking.
Second, Holloway’s constant cardio could be the difference. He holds UFC records for significant strikes, and his ability to continue to press at a wacky rate of speed for five rounds will test Poirier’s gas tank to its limits. Dustin has been in so many wars, and the cost this will exact might finally catch up with Max’s incessant pressure. Holloway’s defensive striking, at 59%, is also solid, keeping him from getting caught by Poirier’s explosive counterattacks.
Finally, Poirier’s retirement is a huge question mark. It may motivate him, but it also puts incredible pressure. Even former foe Eddie Alvarez has talked about being afraid of fighters calling out retirement before a bout. This mental weight, combined with Max’s current peak performance and sheer desire for revenge against his two previous losses, gives Holloway a huge psychological edge. I back him @1.81 to win Poirier’s “retirement fight.”. Sign up for the best betting platform for high odds and limits on MMA bouts.