Time for another look at the sport that’s unique to the land down under. For round 20 of the AFL, on Jul 27 at 5:20 GMT, at Marvel Stadium, the local St Kilda Saints will face the Melbourne Demons. The season has not been going well for either and, realistically, they can only have one goal. The 8th spot which will allow a qualification for the playoffs.
Losses, losses and more losses
That is the reality of the year. 12 defeats for the hosts, 11 for the visitors. Only 5 and 6 wins respectively. -217 and -157 on the differentials. With these numbers it is not a surprise that they are at 15th and 13th place on the table. Assuming that the hosts win, then they will both have the same record in victories and losses and they would be tied up with Carlton and Essendon at 24 points each.
The objective is to reach Fremantle, currently at 8th with 40 points. Surely, it’s a tall order for either side, but they must start somewhere. Ostensibly, if Melbourne win, then their task is a bit easier than the rest, especially if they manage to get all 4 points and get to 28.
The visitors with the advantage
Probably, the last win that Melbourne managed to score over North Melbourne, is the reason that they get the price of @1.76. However, the home field advantage seems to slightly increase the chances for the hosts, hence, the offer of @2.13. Roughly, this translates to a 46% – 54% chance of winning. We would disagree with that assessment, given that the defensive capabilities of the Saints are way to sub-par for the requirements of the league.
A critical confrontation on where those offers will head comes in a couple of days. That’s the one between the Demons and the Carlton Blues one of their direct adversaries. If they manage to win it then they will have an even greater incentive when they travel to St Kilda. One way or the other the Saints will probably lose another one, as they go against the Geelong Cats, ranked 4th in the standings.
Of course, when we come back next week with the final recommendation for our selection, we will look into all the details again and, if you kept your end of the bargain and chose to open an account at the best betting platform, we will also keep ours with a solid suggestion.
Update
After the latest results, nothing has changed in the positioning of the two teams at 13th and 15th place of the table. They both added a defeat in their tally. Melbourne to the Carlton Blues by 78 – 70 and St. Kilda to the Geelong Cats by 113 – 82. However, what has changed is the distance to the 8th spot. It is now held by Gold Coast at 44 points and this means that it will be that much harder for either opponent to achieve their objectives.
This is not just «do or die»
If either St Kilda or Melbourne want to make it to the playoffs, they have to start winning games. Period. The hosts along with Essendon and West Coast count five consecutive losses. The visitors, along with Carlton and North Melbourne, count 4 defeats and only 1 win. However, the worst part comes through their quite poor performances. It is doubtful if either manager can come up with a good way to motivate the players. Nevertheless, they must find one. And fast.
“At this time, we have offers of @2.12 for the Saints and @1.90 for the Demons. Meaning that the visitors have a 4% difference in their chances of winning in their favor. However, we will count on the home field advantage and suggest to all who want to open an account at the best betting platform, a risk of supporting St. Kilda.