The weekend of Oct 14 – 16 is occupied with the qualifiers for the EURO 2024 and other international tournaments. So, we turn our attention to Mexico and its Liga de Expansión, Apertura. This match promises to be quite entertaining and with lots of betting potential.
On Oct 16 at the Estadio Guaycura, at 3:05 am, hosts Club Atletico La Paz play against Mineros de Zacatecas, for round 13 of the 15 that are needed for the completion of the competition. And this one should be a fight to the bitter end, as there is a third club waiting to reap the benefits of a possible draw.
The adversaries
Currently third on the table, with the same points as the leaders but with a worse goal differential, reside Club Atletico. The record is 6 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses, 20 goals scored, 23 conceded. For them it’s a «do or die» situation as they have played one more match than their opponents. On the other hand, we have the potential champions Zacatecas. There really is nothing between the two. Mineros counts 6 victories, 2 draws and 3 defeats. However, they have sent the ball at the bottom of the net of their opponents 26 times, while they picked it up from theirs 16.
Both sides have a different morale out of their last matches. Atletico got humiliated by Tepatitlán de Morelos by 4-0 at an away game, while their opponents rampaged over Venados by 3-0 at home. Which translates to even more pressure for the home team. They have to win this one to have a chance for the title. Moreover, they do have a history to hand on to, as they defeated their adversaries by 2-0 the last time they met in January.
A bad time for La Paz, a good time for Mineros
If someone was to look 5 rounds back, they would say that Atletico stood the best chance of clinging the title and moving up to the top category. However, since then, they faced all three of their defeats managing to win only one game. Zacatecas on the other hand, won 3 of their encounters and lost the other two. Meanwhile Leones Negros went on a record of 3 victories and a draw managing to sneak between the two on the table. It’s this fact that gives motive to both sides to go out all guns blazing to win. A draw serves none.
Perhaps this is the reason we have such close odds to work with:
- Atletico La Paz to win @2.480
- Draw @3.500
- Zacatecas to win @2.730
- Over 2.5 @1.75
- Under 2.5 @2.22
We suggest
The bookies seem to give the home field advantage and the desperation bonus to Club. I completely disagree. Even though they play an away game, it is clear that Mineros is in a much better shape and with as much of a strong incentive to win. They may have a slightly better offense than the home side, but they do have a much better defense. And this is the key aspect of this confrontation. That being said, we cannot discount the possibility of both teams scoring and that would mean an over 2.5 result as the most probably score that we see is 1-2 for the visitors.
There are still a few days left for this one. Both clubs have no matches to play until they meet each other on the pitch so any news will have to be about things that may happen in the training sessions. We are also expecting more odds to become available for other markets. Perhaps for the correct score, as it seems that the outcome prediction algorithms seem to favor a 1:1 draw between the two. All things considered, it would be the worse outcome for both, as they would be working in favor of Leones Negros.
Update
Let’s resume our trip to Mexico and the confrontation in question. We took another look at the odds that the various bookmakers offer, and we continue to disagree with their evaluation of the underlying circumstances of the match. As the saying goes “all other things being equal”, we have to apply the quite well-known Occam’s Razor. The simplest solution is always the best. And in this case, it’s really not complicated at all. Zacatecas present a far better defensive stance and it is what will give them the victory.
Furthermore, we cannot find any other aspect that could have an effect on either side. The weather will be fine at 35 degrees Celsius, the humidity will be at 48% and the winds will blow at 16 km/hour. The terrain is in relatively good shape and we have no news about any sudden injuries or punishments. So, it will be business as usual and that means that it will all depend on the day that the players will find themselves.
The bookmakers continue to offer a tight selection on the winner. Quite gainful yet not really enticing as it is too close to call. It makes no real difference to go for a 2.469 for Atletico or a 2.710 for Zacatecas. We have some really good ones though for a correct score. The 1-1 draw that we talked about in the preview, gets a massive @7.30. Our own suggestion for a 1-2 for the visitors goes to the roof: @9.90. And we will go for this one.
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