The Argentine Primera División has just begun and the value for betting at the first rounds of the season is quite high as the teams have not yet fully developed their playing style for the season. This is why we see some surprising entries in the top positions of the table. For the 6th round we have a confrontation that may create some separation between the teams at the top. On Sunday Mar 11, league leaders Defensa y Justicia host third club Talleres Córdoba at Norberto “Tito” Tomaghello Stadium, at 22:15 GMT.
Statistical information and history
The two sides have exactly the same numbers so far. 4 wins and one defeat in the first 5 rounds, having scored 10 goals and conceded 4. The leaders lost to Huracán at the first round with the impressive 4-2. They have not conceded any other goals since. So did their opponents against Indepediente, only the score was 1-0, while they have conceded goals since then.
One piece of information that makes a lot of difference in South America is the tradition. Defensa have won all 4 of their last matches at home against the visitors and at high scores at that: 3-0, 4-1, 2-0 (twice). However, they are also the only of the two that have lost at home, while their opponents have so far enjoyed only victories at their away matches.
Odds available at this time
- Under 2.5 goals @1.96
- Over 2.5 goals @1.92
- Win for Defensa @2.85 Probability: 52.2%
- Win for Talleres @2.60 Probability: 23.4%
- Draw @2.87 Probability: 24.3%
All indications say that it is a tough proposition for all betting options. There are some that show greater probability, however, in an overall summing up, there are no clear ways to go. However, it does seem that the top Asian and European bookmakers consider that the home side has a slight advantage.
Strengths, weaknesses and game styles
Other similarities between the two sides have to do with the formation they deploy (both managers seem to prefer 4-2-3-1) and that they both tend to score on the first half of their matches. For the hosts that’s the period between the 30th minute and the end, while for the visitors it’s the first 15 minutes. A third similarity comes through the fact that neither side will have any players that will miss the encounter because of injuries or sent-offs.
So far, Defensa e Justicia have presented strengths at counter attacking, stealing the ball, returning from being down to win and using mostly the wings for their attacks. On the other hand, they have also shown to be very weak in defending set pieces and avoiding fouls that their opponents can take advantage of, from dangerous positions. Their preferred style indicates attacking from the left side.
The visitors are strong at scoring through set pieces (where they are also good in defending) and being very effective with the scoring opportunities they create. However, they do not protect a lead well, and they do not do well defending against through balls or attacks from the wings. Their own playing style says short passes and through balls.
What to expect
The aforementioned details indicate two very strong likelihoods that both refer to the visitors scoring either through a direct freekick or a set piece. Even if this comes to pass, it is also quite likely that the hosts will come back, equalize, and possibly win. In fact, the chances for all of the above are over 67%! A percentage of over 50% says that the hosts will receive a fair number of yellow cards, or that they will score at least once through a play from either of the wings. Combine the above and you also have a strong possibility for a bet that both teams will score.
There are still more than 10 days until the match and many things can change until the time comes for the two sides to meet. When we come with the update for this confrontation, we will be able to provide a beter insight. Meanwhile, it’s past the time that you open a betting account at the best betting platform.
Update
Welcome back! The Argentine First Division is getting hotter from the start and things have taken a small turn since the preview. For instance, both clubs had a match that didn’t go as planned and only a point separates them on the board, more reasons to bet on their match.
First, we have the home team. They only managed to get a draw against Boca Juniors in a match where their ball possession only reach 40% and received 6 yellow cards; certainly not a good match. Nevertheless, El Defe has effectively defended their turf, losing only one of the 5 last matches they played at home.
Then we have a Talleres de Cordova that come from a 1-2 defeat against Vélez Sasfield, where Juan Portillo, a key piece in their defense strategy, got a red card at minute 17. To add to the list of worries, they have not managed to win in the Norberto “Tito” Tomaghello Stadium since 2013.
That’s why I reckon Defensa y Justicia is going to win and after going through the betting software account registration, punters should consider betting on that result just as I did.