At the Accor Arena in Paris, at 16:00 GMT of Sep 02, we have a very interesting main card fight for the flyweight category of the women’s UFC. French fighter Manon Fiorot says welcome to the class to 2-time strawweight champion, U.S. born Rose Namajunas who will be fighting for the first time at 125 pounds.
The numbers
Typically, the home fighter has all the advantage. She is 10 and 1 on her MMA record and 5-0 on her UFC record. However, the American looks way more experienced at 11-5 for MMA fights at 9-4 for UFC. Namajunas may be on her debut on the weight class, however, as the popular saying goes: «there’s no substitute for experience».
Some more numbers that give the advantage to Fiorot are:
The chances
The balance of the statistics (since it’s just the first time that Namajunas shows up), is probably the reason that the best offers at this time stand at:
However, there is one issue that makes taking a risk at betting in favor of Namajunas worth it. Since it is her first time in the octagon, no one knows how she’ll fight. Her style in strawweight may be known, but she has had enough time to formulate new moves and new strategies that Manon does not know about. So, the American may be able to completely surprise the French and take her down.
Confidence is paramount
Here is another reason to risk a bet on Thug Rose. Fiorot seems way too confident for the win, a fact that could easily lead to overconfidence and possibly an underestimation of her opposition. According to her own statements:
“I’m taller and stronger, and I’m pretty sure in a few months you can’t prepare well a move up to flyweight. I don’t know. I think she took her time and prepared well, but I think I have a big advantage in the power and size. I’m better in all the MMA disciplines: wrestling, standup and grappling, too. I think I have a big advantage physically, too.”
Even more reason to be overconfident
The French fighter is not one to take lightly. After Alexa Grasso deposed Valentina Shevchenko, the fight between Erin Blanchfield and Taila Santos will determine if Manon Fiorot is the #1 contender for the title of the flyweight class itself! That fact, by itself, could be overwhelming. And on this aspect, her opponent has a huge advantage as she already holds two titles under her belt!
We mentioned above that Fiorot will be fighting at home, in front of a friendly crowd. While it can be quite supportive to her cause, it could also add a lot more stress on her shoulders and this could add an edge to Namajunas, who is quite used to fighting in hostile environments.
What to expect
Honestly, no one can tell. The difference in height and reach, may be a reason for the American to take the fight down to the ground. It’s the usual way to overcome such deficiencies. However, in order to do that she must stay on her feet long enough to do that. Here are some more issues to consider:
A bout of unknowns this one is (praise be to you, Master Yoda…) Nothing much will change in the 10 days left until the two fighters appear at the Accor Arena. A week from now, when we return with the final suggestion for the outcome, hopefully with some more markets to include, we will have reviewed all the circumstances.
Update
It would seem that minds have slightly changed since the last week that we discussed about this confrontation, resulting in a slight change in the odds offered. Now, the win for Fiorot is slightly higher at @1.534 over the 1.449 7 days ago, while the win for Namajunas is slightly lower at @2.564 instead of @2.663. It would seem to indicate that the best betting establishments now tend to believe that Namajunas may have a greater chance of winning this bout, than what they considered initially.
This is a confrontation with so many unknown factors, that there is only one other market offered. Over 2.5 gets @1.499, while under 2.5 goes for @2.633. It’s precisely these mysteries that allow us to consider that a risk in this case would be justifiable. However, not too much risk. It’s quite possible to make some decent profit out of this one, but under no circumstances should you stake your entire bankroll on it (not on any bet for that matter).
We will maintain our original gut feeling that the American is a complete X factor and can surprise the French. The real question is if she will give her the time to adjust to the surprise or not. The longer the bout goes on for, the more the chances will shift in Fiorot’s favor. The odds are similar so a bet on either a win for Namajunas, or an under 2.5 will get you a won bet for your stats and some money for your pocket. So, if you want to risk a small part of what you can afford on this one, go open an account at the best betting tool,