Since the pandemic, we have realized how big the fans are, as home advantage had become much lower all around the world without the fans. These 2 teams, Villarreal & Arsenal, have been typical examples as they are having similar home and away records since COVID-19. This generally favors the away team in the betting aspect.
Villarreal had been on a decline since January. They were in UCL spots halfway this season but are now struggling to get into UEL spots. One big difference is their average goal conceded (jumped from 0.95 to 1.4) and xG against (0.95 to 1.3).
In contrast, Arsenal started the season terribly but had improved since mid-December. They could be considered a top 6 team in EPL in recent 4 months, as their attack eventually starts clicking with the likes of Smith Rowe, Odegaard, and Lacazette getting into great form.
For team news, Arsenal should receive a big boost with Aubameyang back to the squad and likely to be on the bench at least. Lacazette is a major doubt but getting either him or Auba back is still great news for the gunners. Also, Arteta could start the talented Martinelli upfront who is also a good choice. Overall, it is good value to back Arsenal to win @2.93
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